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06/15/2013

In the latest cot report review, on the 23rd commitments of traders report this year, we show you cot charts on the following futures markets: Oats cot report (Commercials -53% CHNG), 5-Year Note cot report (Commercials 26% CHNG), Nasdaq-100 cot report (Commercials 25% CHNG), Australian Dollar cot report (Large Speculators All Time COT Extreme), Heating Oil cot report (Large Speculators All Time COT Extreme), Silver cot report (530 report COT Extreme)

06/10/2013

USD Index is a futures contract traded on the ICE exchange (https://www.theice.com/usdx.jhtml) and it represents a basket of currencies established by the exchange. This is a futures contract so it has open interest and also COT data is compiled from it. We process that data, and show the price data received from the exchange. True USD Index is created by COTbase: we combine the individual currency futures to give our users a better perspective, since the individual currency futures have a lot more open interest (ie. analysis value), than the USD Index futures. We do this by calculating the exact dollar amount of how net long or short the given trader group (commercials, large speculators, etc.) is in case of each currency and we weight in the currencies according to their open interest dollar value.

06/10/2013

The basis of COT analysis is finding seizable imbalances in trader positioning (’commitedness’). COT reports show traders positions: how many long and how many short contracts did Commercials, Large and Small Speculators hold after the close of the previous Tuesday’s trading (or on another day, if Tuesday was a holiday).In the commitments of traders report if a trader group holds the same amount of short and long contracts, we cannot ’speculate’ on where that group, in aggregate, sees the market going. Fortunately, this is a rare case – most of the time longs and shorts of a trader group (eg. Commercials) differ, often in a large degree, that allows us to see in which direction that given group is positioning itself. If, for example, Commercials on the Wheat market are net long (ie. they hold more longs than shorts), we may speculate that the ’insiders’ of the Wheat market are betting on price rise (or hedging against it, that is essentially the same in terms of buying pressure).

06/08/2013

In the latest cot report review, on the 22nd commitments of traders report this year, we show you cot charts on the following futures markets: S&P-500 cot report (Commercials 36% CHNG), Eurodollars cot report (Commercials 27% CHNG), New Zealand Dollar cot report (Commercials 22% CHNG), Heating Oil cot report (Large Speculators All Time COT Extreme), British Pound cot report (Large Speculators All Time COT Extreme), Australian Dollar cot report (Large Speculators All Time COT Extreme)

06/01/2013

In the latest cot report review, on the 21st commitments of traders report this year, we show you cot charts on the following futures markets: Coffee cot report (Commercials 27% CHNG), Fed Funds cot report (Commercials -23% CHNG), 10-Year Note cot report (Commercials 23% CHNG), Nasdaq-100 cot report (Large Speculators All Time COT Extreme), Silver cot report (Large Speculators 527 report COT Extreme), Gold cot report (Large Speculators 333 report COT Extreme), Yapanese Yen cot report (Large Speculators 306 report COT Extreme)

05/29/2013

COT Reports are published each Friday (except if it’s a holiday) at 3:30 pm Eastern time and contain all long and short positions held by the certain trader groups on the immediately preceding Tuesday, after close.Our subscribers can access the cot analysis and advanced cot charts of recent Commitments of traders reports in a few minutes after the (usually Friday evening) publication. We also include Volume and Open Interest analysis for no extra charge.

05/27/2013

Two types of COT reports are issued by the CFTC, the Futures Only and the Futures and Options commitments of traders reports, both in Long and Short formats:Futures Only: gathers traders’ positions from all U.S. futures marketsFutures and Options: includes traders’ U.S. options positions as well (options positions are converted to futures contract equivalent positions by delta correction).Short Format: lists traders’ positions, practically everything that is needed for trading purposesLong Format: shows all kinds of statistics and concentration ratios, that have little or no use, especially for trading purposes. We advise to use the Short format, the extra information in the Long format is practically useless.Our subscribers can research both Futures and Futures and Options cot data on all kinds of commitments of traders reports (Legacy, Disaggregated, Traders in Financial Futures, CIT). We found that sometimes useful signals present themselves in only one of the datasets. We encourage you to monitor the developments in both datasets in order to gain the best possible grip on the markets.

05/25/2013

In the latest cot report review, on the 20th commitments of traders report this year, we show you cot charts on the following futures markets: Coffee cot report (Commercials 36% CHNG), Wheat cot report (Commercials 24% CHNG), New Zealand Dollar cot report (Commercials 22% CHNG), Rough Rice cot report (Large Speculators All Time COT Extreme), Heating Oil cot report (Large Speculators All Time COT Extreme), British Pound cot report (Large Speculators All Time COT Extreme)

05/22/2013

Yes, CFTC publishes four kind of Commitments of Traders reports:Legacy cot reports: the original COT reports, dating back for most futures contracts to the 1980’s. For trading purposes, these reports are the most useful, because of their long history and proven edge .Disaggregated and Traders in Financial Futures (TIFF) cot reports: new cot reports introduced in 2009, with different trader categorizations. Since its history is short, meaningful statistical testing cannot yet be made to find out its usefulness.Supplemental Commodity Index or CIT cot reports: has more history than the disaggregated reports, but still not enough, especially compared to the depth of the legacy reports. It was constructed to show the positions of commodity investment (commodity index tracking) funds.Most of statistical testing was performed on the Legacy cot reports, and clearly these datasets are the most widely followed and respected among market professionals. We suggest to concentrate on these reports, and look to include the Disaggregated data analysis after its history builds up to at least five years.Our subscribers can access our research and advanced cot charts on all kinds of Commitments of Traders report, including Legacy, Disaggregated, Traders in Financial Futures and CIT report.

05/20/2013

In the commitments of traders reports, traders are grouped into categories and the number of contracts they hold are added up. All COT reports show how many long and how many short contracts do traders of each category hold. The COT report that is the most well known is the one that is in publication since 1986 (its predecessors go back to 1924) – the Legacy commitments of traders report. It breaks down the market into three major categories, the Commercials, the Large Speculators and Non-reportables (who are the small guys, Small speculators).

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