All-Time COT Extremes in Lean Hogs and Australian Dollar: What the Latest Positioning Data Shows

The 42nd COT report of 2026 contains two readings that stand out from the rest: all-time bullish COT extremes in both lean hogs and the Australian dollar. Extremes at this level are uncommon, and they deserve a closer look — even if they don't tell us exactly what price will do next.

What a COT Extreme Actually Means

The Commitments of Traders report breaks open interest into three main trader categories: commercials (the hedgers), large speculators, and small speculators. A COT extreme occurs when one of these groups reaches an unusually stretched positioning level relative to historical readings. A bullish extreme in large speculators, for example, reflects a historically high net long position — more contracts on the long side than has typically been the case.

It is worth being clear about what an extreme does and does not tell us. An extreme signals that positioning has reached an unusual level. It does not, by itself, tell us that a reversal is coming or that a specific price target will be hit. These signals tend to play out over the medium to long term, and patience is part of the process.

Lean Hogs: An All-Time Bullish Extreme in Large Speculators

Lean hogs currently sits at an all-time bullish COT extreme in large speculators. This is a level not seen before in this market's reported history, which makes it a genuinely unusual reading.

The signal is bullish — large speculators are positioned heavily on the long side. Whether that translates into higher prices depends on how conditions develop from here. All-time extremes can persist for weeks or even months before the market responds, so this is a situation that rewards a medium- to long-term perspective rather than an expectation of an immediate move.

Australian Dollar: Bullish Extreme Supporting an Existing Trend

The Australian dollar also shows an all-time bullish COT extreme in large speculators. The context here is slightly different. Rather than signaling a potential change in direction, this extreme may be reinforcing a trend that has already been in place since earlier in the year.

Not every COT extreme marks a turning point. Sometimes extreme positioning reflects strong conviction behind an ongoing move, suggesting that the trend remains healthy rather than exhausted. That appears to be the framing worth considering for the Australian dollar at this stage — though how far the trend extends from here remains to be seen.

Other Markets Worth Noting

Beyond the headline extremes, the report also shows meaningful positioning shifts in a few other markets. The New Zealand dollar saw a 22% change in commercials' net positions — the largest change in this week's report — with the reading suggesting higher prices in the near term, though without strong support from shorter-term indicators at this stage. Traders moving back toward a bullish extreme would strengthen the case further, particularly if price finds support at a key technical level.

Corn and Kansas City wheat both showed bullish changes in commercials' net positions as well, with changes of 15% and 13% respectively. Both markets had seen bearish extremes not long ago that were followed by price cooling — and both are now moving away from those levels toward more neutral ground.

The euro was also mentioned, with the potential for commercials to reach deeper net short levels and large speculators to extend their positioning further — a development that could set up an interesting situation if those levels are reached.

The Takeaway

Two all-time COT extremes in a single weekly report is not something that happens often. Lean hogs and the Australian dollar are the markets most worth watching closely over the coming weeks and months. Neither extreme guarantees a specific price outcome, but both reflect positioning that is historically unusual — and that context adds a layer of information that price alone does not provide.

For traders who follow COT data, this is a week to pay attention.

Watch the full COT Review 42 on the COTbase YouTube channel for the complete analysis, including the chart walkthroughs and additional context on each market covered.