Euro Positioning Reaches a 343-Report Extreme — What the COT Data Is Telling Us

The 40th Commitments of Traders report contains several notable positioning shifts, but one market stands out for the depth of its historical context: the euro. With Large Speculators sitting at a 343-report extreme and Commercials at a 510-report extreme, the euro's current COT picture is unusually stretched — and worth examining carefully.

A Deep Extreme in the Euro

A COT extreme measures how far current positioning has moved relative to historical readings within a given lookback window. The figures in Report 40 for the euro are significant: 343 reports for Large Speculators and 510 reports for Commercials. These are not routine readings.

That said, an extreme does not automatically indicate a reversal is imminent. As the analysis notes, bearish or bullish COT extremes can continue widening for weeks or even months before the market turns. The current reading is a signal worth monitoring, not a guarantee of direction.

Using traditional technical analysis alongside COT data — particularly identifying established support and resistance zones — can help narrow down where a potential turning point might develop. One such zone, which previously acted as resistance on multiple occasions and has since been breached, is now being watched as a possible support level for the euro.

Could the Euro Be Finding a Bottom?

Based on the current COT configuration, there is a case for the euro finding a bottom later this year or in early next year — but only if the extreme continues to develop as expected. A further widening of the COT extreme would add more weight to the idea of a meaningful long opportunity taking shape. For now, the setup is developing rather than confirmed.

This distinction matters. The COT data adds an informational layer — it shows how different trader groups are positioned — but it does not tell us precisely when or where price will respond.

Other Markets in This Week's Report

Beyond the euro, a few other markets showed positioning developments worth noting.

Soybean meal has been carrying a bearish COT extreme for several weeks. The recent price decline appears consistent with the market beginning to react to that signal. The analysis suggests this decline may continue, with traders likely to reduce their extreme positioning as price falls further.

Lean hogs shows an all-time COT extreme on the 5-year chart — a historically unusual level that, in the medium to long term, suggests higher prices may follow. A comparable extreme in 2023 was followed by a significant market move, though past reactions are context, not prediction.

In the metals, both platinum and palladium recorded larger-than-average changes in Commercials' net positions — 26% and 20% respectively. The positioning shifts suggest some potential for near-term strengthening in both markets, supported by ICOT score readings, though neither represents the kind of deep extreme seen in the euro or lean hogs.

Mexican peso also recorded a notably large change — approximately 43% in Commercials' net positions, described as possibly the largest in the past year. A bullish COT change signal and supportive ICOT scores suggest a short-term bounce is possible, though the broader trend in the peso has been downward following a prior bearish extreme.

The euro is the market carrying the most structurally significant COT reading in this week's report. A 343-report extreme in Large Speculators and a 510-report extreme in Commercials puts the euro at an unusually stretched positioning level by historical standards. Whether that translates into a durable bottom depends on how the extreme develops from here and how price interacts with key technical levels.

Positioning data like this does not replace price analysis — it adds another layer to it. Watching how the euro behaves around current support levels, while tracking whether the COT extreme continues to widen, will give a clearer picture in the weeks ahead.

Follow the COT data across these markets and more at COTbase.com.